Notes From The Free State Of Patrick,
October 27, 2020, Volume 1, Number 1
Voting For President in Patrick
County Virginia
When
was the last time a Democratic Presidential Candidate won Patrick County?
It
might surprise some to know that it was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and he just
barely won the county beating President Gerald Ford 2,740 to 2,349 out of 5,377
votes cast in the bicentennial year of our nation. Carter lost the Commonwealth
of Virginia.
I could not vote in that election,
but I started voting in the next election in 1980. I am 5-4 voting for winning
candidates since then, and with the upcoming election next week (November 3), I
did a little research just for fun to see historically how my home county has
voted in my voting lifetime and a little beyond.
For
most of my lifetime, Virginia has been a sure thing usually for the most
conservative candidate until Barrack Obama changed Virginia's scenario in 2008
and 2012, but not Patrick County, where he got shellacked 11,113 to 5,296 in
those two elections. The President should not feel bad about it because, in my
lifetime, only two Democrats have won The Free State of Patrick, Carter, as
previously mentioned, and Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
It
surprised me when Vice-President Joe Biden showed up in the county seat to
spend time at the Coffee Break in Stuart, Virginia, during the 2012 election because
he knew his ticket had no chance of winning Patrick County. Somethings are
predictable, and that is often elections. For instance, it is almost impossible
for a Republican candidate to win office without winning Ohio. It is just
something that historically always happens.
You
can go back to study all this thanks to the internet and the Virginia Board of
Elections website, where you can look at past elections to predict future
elections. I can almost guarantee the reader that the Republican candidate, no
matter who he or she is, will get around 5,500 votes, and the Democrat
candidate, no matter who she is, will get around 2,500 out of around 8,250
votes in Patrick County. Virginia could be decided in 2020 in one county in
Northern Virginia and another county in the Tidewater as their populations are
large and can swing either way depending on the circumstances.
The
Virginia primary in 2016 was unusual for us in that our vote did matter. Deciding
the candidate for either party as you could vote in either party’s primary. This means as a Republican, you could have
“Felt the Bern” and voted for the socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to
sabotage Hillary Clinton. A Democrat could have voted for any of the GOP
candidates to get the easiest to defeat in November. Either way, you can make a
difference in Virginia this year.
I
noticed that the 2016 Republican primary had 2,517 voters, while the Democrats
only had 739 voters, which was not a good sign for the latter in November in
Patrick County. In Virginia, over one million voted Republican, with 800,000
voting Democratic.
Over
the years, I have studied the voting patterns of Patrick County just for fun.
Usually, the most conservative precincts are in the Dan River District close to
very Republican Carroll County to the west. Usually, Patrick Springs is the
most liberal precinct.
Presidential
Candidates who won Patrick County since I started voting are Reagan in 1980
(4297 to 2382 for Carter with John Anderson getting 105) and 1984, where he won
the most lopsided Electoral College victory in history. Both George Bushes won
the county in 1988, 1992, 2000, and 2004. Romney and McCain beat President
Obama in 2008 and 2012 in Patrick County. Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton in 1996
(3547 to 2301), which might surprise some.
Virginia voted for Nixon three times
1968, 1972, and 1960. “I Like Ike” was the familiar refrain in Virginia in the
1950s, but before then, Virginia was part of the solid South going for Truman
and Franklin Roosevelt in the 1940s and 1930s, reflecting, no doubt, the
influence of the Byrd Democratic Party machine.
We are a Democratic Republic, and we
decide who is President by way of the Electoral College, which means each state
gets electors (Virginia gets 13 in 2020), which is based on the number in the
House of Representatives (11 in Virginia), based on population, and Senators
(two each for the state) in the U. S. Congress.
In 2016, Donald Trump received 6.454
votes (68%) in Patrick County, with Hillary Clinton receiving 1,768 votes (21%).
The remaining votes went to Libertarian, Green Parties, and others. Clinton won
twelve counties in urban areas and twelve cities. Donald Trump won the rest of
the Commonwealth of Virginia.
With
the 2020 election coming on November 3, a scenario could come down to Virginia
deciding the election. I went to the website www.270towin.com,
and it is possible that the Democrats could have 263 electoral college votes, and
the Republicans could have 262 votes with only the 13 votes of Virginia left to
decide who is the next President of the United States. While there is little
doubt that Patrick County will go for the Republican, Virginia might not. So,
your vote matters in 2020 if you live in Virginia. Do not let your future be
decided by someone else voting when you can make that decision yourself. VOTE!
This
Tom Perry reminding you as Harry Truman, who won Patrick County in 1948, once
said, “There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know.”
